The Joshua-Ngannou blogpost
Since this one won't be mentioned in my March predictions on account of not being a title fight, I figure it warrants its own analysis because it's a big heavyweight contest that plenty will be interested in.
Francis Ngannou - with a record of 1 fight, 0 wins, and 1 loss - is now one of the top 10 heavyweight boxers in the world. Someone reading this sentence a year ago would've found it unbelievable, someone reading it years from now could do with a bit more context. In his fight against reigning WBC & lineal heavyweight champion of the world, Tyson Fury, Ngannou knocked down the professional boxer but lost a contentious 10-round decision. On my card I had it 5 rounds a piece, which would be a draw, but the 10-8 round for the knockdown was the deciding factor in giving Ngannou the win by 1 point. In just one night of boxing the champion became an impostor and the impostor became a martyr.
Prior to that night, many disregarded the whole event as a farce, with one of the loudest critical voices being one Eddie Hearn. If you're not familiar with him, I envy you. Hearn is the worst kind of nepobaby - an annoying one. He has the air of a man who sells used cars that run on snake oil. A foul-mouthed product of British boarding school who loves nothing more than the sound of his own voice, the smell of his own farts, and the sight of his father's wallet. A cursory Google/Youtube search (modified with before:2023-10-28) brings up countless interviews from last year and that demonstrate how unending his disdain was for the Fury-Ngannou match.
Businessmen in boxing are notoriously duplicitous, so Hearn's newfound proselyte status should be no great surprise. But still, it's pathetic to now 180 into an ardent cheerleader because Joseph Parker's admirable win scarpered the original plans for a Joshua-Wilder fight. This embarrassing climbdown could've been avoided if that match had happened in December 2023 rather than essentially holding eliminators for a non-title fight. Or better yet, it could have happened five years earlier. Instead, we're now in a situation where DAZN company man Ade Oladipo was compelled to directly ask Joshua and Ngannou if this is still a "gimmick fight" after comments Joshua made last year.
What's up with AJ?
Most boxers are an open book. A 'what you see is what you get' kind of deal. Anthony Joshua comes across as difficult-to-read and somewhat enigmatic in comparison. Is he in it for money or the legacy? Does he box to win or to entertain? Is he a businessman or a roadman? Face or heel? Media-friendly or fame-averse? Politically conscious or 'i'm alright, Jack'? Good vibes or mental health struggles? A signpost or a weathercock? We're led to believe that his biggest goal is to become three-time heavyweight champion of the world. Yet a match against IBF mandatory Filip Hrgovic would bring him closer to that goal than a potentially disastrous loss against Ngannou. These are perhaps intrusive or unfair questions to ask a public figure. Or maybe they're unfairly framed as binary options. But the fact remains that they're still unanswered/open questions after nearly a dozen years since his Olympic triumph.
Ultimately, it still doesn't feel like we really know Joshua or what he wants deep down. A lot of what we hear about him is second-hand information (often from the media-obsessed Hearn) even though Joshua has lamented people speaking on his behalf. On top of that, his boxing style changes as frequently as his trainers. The best I can come up with is that he's a little bit of everything all rolled into one. A man who is certain to appear uncertain. The Ngannou fight makes financial sense and it's an opportunity to measure him against Tyson Fury. But beyond that, who knows what the future entails? At 34 years old, Joshua has a handful of years left for his boxing goals and decades of being an ex-champ to decide what he'll do with his life. All any of us can do is carry on with the same one-day-at-a-time approach and see how things play out.
The Fight
Enough armchair psychology and philosophising, it's time for armchair boxing predictions. I was one of the few who called that Ngannou would do better than expected in his fight against Fury. I admit to being a UFC/MMA neophyte but as far as I could tell Ngannou had never been knocked out cold or even seriously rocked. It would therefore come down to a boxing contest and how much of a toll the Wilder fights had taken on Fury, which was quite a bit by my estimation.
Joshua-Ngannou is being billed as "Knockout Chaos". Whether it lives up to that will depend on which Anthony Joshua we get on the night. I know it's a cliché but sometimes they're applicable and this is one such case. It is possible that Joshua becomes the first man to put Ngannou to sleep, but I don't envisage Ngannou being the knockout chaos recipient. It then becomes a question of if Joshua's chin can stand up to Ngannou's power and I do not think anyone in the Joshua camp wants to see the answer landing. I'd expect this to result in an outboxing (and slightly dull) performance by Joshua where Ngannou fruitlessly tries to walk him down and walks into punches on route to a decision loss.
However, consider the following comments made by Anthony Joshua in January about his current trainer Ben Davison.
“The reason I was able to gel with Ben is because he doesn’t try to change your style. I went to a stage where I was trying to change my style - a bit of back-foot boxing, box behind the jab, stick and move, not be explosive, control the pace, stuff like that. But Ben was like, ‘That’s not your body type. You’re a f***ing big unit, you’re explosive, go and knock f***ing people out.'”
Take it with a pinch of salt because there's every chance he goes back to changing his style again. Back-foot boxing behind the jab would be the wise thing to do but it would be infinitely more entertaining if this descends into a slugfest. And in a slugfest I would give Ngannou the edge.
My prediction
My instincts says Joshua by UD because he's a better boxer than Tyson Fury.
Buuuuut.... Joshua does struggle against shorter fighters with fast hands & sharp counterpunching, plus I think Ngannou can only improve from the experience he's had against Fury. Both of them should land some good shots and in that scenario I (tentatively) back Ngannou to win by stoppage.
Coda
I'm often critical of the promotion of boxing's promotion or lack thereof. But one thing I want to highlight as a positive is Ngannou's mini 'Road to' doc that was released on YouTube. It has the standard fare as well as a rare behind-the-scenes glimpse at the promotional trailer shoots.
At a time when other sports are lining up to make reality series - especially as production costs on scripted television feel the effects of inflation - boxing has taken a backseat on this. The gold standard was HBO's 24/7, a few classes below was the biased and predictable Showtime All-Access. Neither of these exist anymore. The only game in town left is ESPN/Top Rank's Blood, Sweat and Tears series on YouTube. The difference here is Ngannou is not relying on a third party like the promoter or broadcaster. At the end, a sole credit reads "Produced by Sandstone Productions". A little digging reveals that this is a Cameroonian production company that operates under the Francis Ngannou Foundation.
This is the kind of common sense synergy and self-starter attitude other boxers need to embrace if they want to cultivate a fanbase. Between one and three fights a year is not enough to keep people's attention. Neither are a handful of scattered interviews and standard affair press conferences. Hours and hours of unedited content on YouTube will never compare to a curated, well-packaged story. The old saying goes that ‘amateur boxing is a sport, professional boxing is a business’.
And it’s true. That business is show business. Show business with blood.