September 2025 boxing predictions

The August Report

• The scorecards flattered Ball as Goodman gave Britain's only boxing world titlist more trouble than expected. Ball matched the energy of the crowd in his post-fight interview.
  • Prediction: Ball by unanimous decision
  • Result: Ball by unanimous decision

I regret to inform you that I missed Carlos Canizales taking Panya Pradabsri's 108lbs WBC title on August 1st, and Takami Kyosuke taking Erick Rosa's WBA title at the same weight on July 30th. I've said it before and I'll hopefully stop saying it one day: there are too many world championship belts. It's not a good look when there are so many that even websites dedicated to boxing miss them from their schedules. I also missed Willibaldo Garcia and Rene Calixto fighting for the 115lbs IBF title, both their draw in December 2024 and their May 23rd rematch. Am I making up fake champions just to test if you're paying attention? Or do these names explain why the very word 'champion' means less in a world with 68 primary belts?

September Schedule

Sep. 6th - Eduardo Nunez vs Christopher Diaz, IBF @ 130lbs

I mindlessly called that Nunez would lose his challenge for the vacant belt back in May because of his opponent's name. To correct this wrong with another wrong, I'll assume Diaz doesn't have any chance. You may remember him from previously losing to a young Shakur Stevenson and his unsuccessful title challenge against Emmanuel Navarrete. It's not definitive but it's never a good sign when a fighter is remembered for not winning fights.

Prediction: Nunez by unanimous decision

Sep. 11th - Anthony Olascuaga vs. Juan Carlos Camacho, WBO @ 112lbs

Almost missed this one. Olascuaga is one of the more likeable fighters today and that's reason enough for me to back him. Camacho, fighting under Miguel Cotto's promotional banner, does have a better record but he has been dropped by lesser opposition.

Prediction: Olascuaga by KO/TKO in the second half of the fight

Sep. 13th - Lewis Crocker vs. Paddy Donovan, IBF @ 147lbs

Oh bruddah, come take a look at this, see how pathetic ReMatchroom cards are when there isn't oil money greasing the wheels. Who will win? Compare Donovan to, oh, say, Crocker. Now there’s a real lemon. Crocker. What a crock. Load of crock. Crocker shit. Would you eat at a place called Crocker’s? It’s enough to make you lose your appetite, a blunt, Slavic thing like that. But Donovan’s, now that’s a name. A fine, handsome, all-American name. That’s a winner’s name, the name of somebody who’s got the world by the tail. A man named Donovan is never going to get pushed around in life.

Prediction: Donovan by KO/TKO in the second half of the fight

Sep. 13th - Saul 'Canelo' Alvarez vs. Terence Crawford, UNDISPUTED @ 168lbs

I've been going back and forth on this one. Is Canelo over the hill? Is Bud too small? Canelo couldn't cut off the ring agains Scull. Crawford struggled with his 154-pound debut against Madrimov. The challenger is two years older. You know what finally swayed my mind though? We might be in a dark age of Mexican boxing. Sure there are lots of title-holders, but what happened to the punchers? It feels like Rafael Espinoza is the only one who knows how to land a knockout blow. And that nonsequitur is why I believe the sun is destined to set on the Mexican empire. Bud will be smaller but I can't see him being a sitting duck or forgetting how to box. I might write more about this event, its promotion, and the implications of its result depending on how interesting the actual fight is.

Prediction: Crawford by unanimous decision

Sep. 14th - Takei Yoshiki vs. Christian Medina Jimenez, WBO @ 118lbs

I had completely underestimated Takei's punching power last time out, given the quality of opposition Jimenez has faced I don't expect any belts to change hands here.

Prediction: Takei by KO/TKO in the first half of the fight

Sep. 14th - Inoue Naoya vs. Murodjon Akhmadaliev, UNDISPUTED @ 122lbs

Akhmadaliev, 14-1, suffered his only loss in 2023 to a fighter Inoue knocked out later that year. What more can I say?

Prediction: Inoue by unanimous decision

Sep. 20th - Oscar Collazo vs Jayson Vayson, WBA/WBO @ minimumweight

Collazo is the most explosive little man in boxing at present. Will Jayson Vayson be okay, son? Good luck to him but I'm not sure he'll rise to the occasion.

Prediction: Collazo by KO/TKO in the middle rounds

Float like an eagle

"Welcome the heavyweight bout," was the battle cry from former New York governor Andrew 'I'm not perverted, I'm just Italian' Cuomo, who is currently running to become Mayor of Nieuw Amsterdam. His campaign suffered an embarrassing setback when the scion of New York Democratic Party royalty came a distant second in a primary election which decided the Democratic Party's nominee. Undeterred by this monumental L, Cuomo, a man who has allegedly struggled with the concept of 'no means no' in the past, has chosen to continue a general election campaign as an independent candidate. His rationale for continuing the fight? "Fly like a butterfly, sting like a bee". Aahhhh, fumble, old man, fumble!

The internet was a mistake

You know what the problem with Wikipedia is? It's the exact same problem as AI-generated texts. You cannot have any confidence that the information you're receiving is trustworthy unless you're already familiar with the subject at hand. So what happens when you mix AI-generated text and a website that anyone can edit? You get the Canelo-Crawford Wikipedia page of course. The old version got spruced up on July 18th by Camburley, who made his only ever edit after creating his account on July 8th. Now, you could j'accuse me of seeing AI where it doesn't exist but imma need you to stop doubting my spidey-sense on these things.

A rudimentary search leads to Cam Burley's LinkedIn and RocketReach, where he lists his employment as being a software engineer at 'Burley AI'. I didn't even have to look very hard, this dude has a digital footprint the size of a digital Sasquatch. On Threads he's "Using AI agents to code faster" and on Udemy you can buy his 3.5 star course on building chatbots. His other handles (X/Twitter, TikTok) makes for similarly tragic reading. This man has been shilling chatbots for almost a decade now and one quote of his from that article stuck out to me: "do people really want to talk to machines? Until publishers figure this out and just how much users want to engage with a machine that will respond with pre-programmed data, it’s going to be hard to drive the type of engagement and value they’re looking for. Is it faster? Is the experience more delightful? Is it natural? Are the interactions compelling?" The answer is that on Wikipedia it doesn't matter and on the modern web the choice is increasingly being made for you. You will be fed ze Western/Eurocentric company line on Al Gore's internet, you will consume ze entrenched biases of LLM datasets, and you will be happy with ze ouroboros hellscape. There are zero downsides to abandoning critical thinking and the human capacity for new ideas.

No escape from reality TV

Reality TV shows are popular with production companies and broadcasters because they're both cheap to produce and inexplicably successful. When you cast known figures as well, you don't even have to do the legwork of explaining why people should care to watch. Netflix has been throwing money at all kinds of these meaningless vanity projects and their newest one will be a behind-the-scenes look at Matchroom Sport. 'Matchroom: The Greatest Showmen' [sic] will star self-described former slavetrader Barry Hearn (page 25 in Epstein's black book) and his son, the dullard's dullard, Edward Hearn. As mentioned on this site before, Hearn has only succeeded at promoting himself, arguably at the expense of fighters signed to him. A great promoter and showman like a Tex Rickard or Don King made superstars out of fighters and put butts in seats, something Matchroom Boxing has constantly struggled with. And it's up for debate how successful Hearn has been at self-promotion when compared to the endless list of e-celebs who have become more famous than him without the silver spoon headstart he had.

Funniest quote of the year

“Dillian 'The Baby-Snatcher' Whyte!” - Thomas Treiber

Tragic quote of the year

“But subconsciously, I said to myself that ‘I’m going to aim to achieve this’ and if I don’t achieve it I want to be somewhere in and amongst that mix. Now look at where we are – I’m boxing Dillian Whyte at the same age I thought I was going to break the Mike Tyson record.” - Moses Itauma

Worst PPV of the year

This was a bizarre promotion. A pricey PPV after the supposed death of PPV had already been announced, a real title fight as the undercard for a 12-0 fighter headlining against a 37 year old man, that main event being reduced from 12 to 10 rounds during fight week, and the pretense that this fight would've ended any other way. Itauma believes in premature fustigation and does not seem to understand the concept of giving the fans a show. In reality though, he doesn't need to. It doesn't matter how many or few tickets are sold, he knows he'll be paid either way. It's the responsibility of promoters to put on a good show, but they too know that 'unprofitable' is not a word in the Arabic language. The procession didn't last 2 minutes, it was shorter than the national anthems, shorter than each individual ringwalk and shorter than Michael Buffer's introduction.

Much has been made of the hype and adulation Itauma receives. Whyte sarcastically played along with the narrative that he was a washed-up old man who was destined to be knocked out in one round. Itauma, unfamiliar with the concept of sarcasm, took much confidence from hearing that his opponent had already mentally defeated himself. Whyte, who lamented not even being compared to Jerry Quary ("you remember Jerry Quarry"), pointed out that in the eyes of the mainstream boxing media Itauma is a cross between Mike Tyson and Muhammad Ali. Itauma has said the endless Tyson comparisons are unwelcome; I would add that the comparisons are both self-wrought (someone publicly announced the benchmark as 'beating Mike Tyson's record') and wholly misplaced.

When Iron Mike was crushing cans in 1-2 rounds he would be fighting every 1-2 months, since the start of 2024 Itauma has only had 9 rounds of professional boxing. For comparison, Mike Tyson had 11 first-round knockouts in 1985 alone. Although surrounded by people who tell him he can do no wrong and all official reports describing him as the second coming, future heavyweight champion, and future hall-of-famer, Itauma found time to be annoyed that he wasn't getting enough credit for asssassinating bums and journeyman with his trademark rabbit punches. For the comparisons to be deserved and credit to be earned, he'd be better off adopting Tyson's punch accuracy and self-effacing humility.