September 2024 boxing predictions

The August Report

• I said I wasn't convinced Madrimov has enough to win, but he had enough to go the distance, quiet the Bud hypetrain, and derail plans for a Crawford-Alvarez bout. All in all, a respectable loss.
  • Prediction: Crawford by KO/TKO rounds 10-12
  • Result: Crawford by unanimous decision
• A bad day at the office for Cruz, Pitbull threw a lot of punches but wasn't able to make the ones that landed truly count. And muchos credit to Valenzuela for taking the ones that landed pretty well. He stuck to his gameplan and deserved to get the nod in what was a close fight.
  • Prediction: Cruz by KO/TKO in the middle rounds
  • Result: Valenzuela by split decision
• Ayala is a good advertisement for Mexican boxing, looking forward to seeing him in bigger fights in the future.
  • Prediction: Ayala by unanimous decision
  • Result: Ayala by KO 6
• Somebody should've told me Leo was going to beat Lopez like he owes him money. Goodness me. The underdog scored one heck of a knockout and Lopez went down like Woody when Andy walks in the room.
  • Prediction: Lopez by unanimous decision
  • Result: Leo by KO 10

50/50 in picking the right winners but judging by how many people were booing Valenzuela winning, I think most people thought Cruz was a sure bet.

September Schedule

Sep. 3rd - Inoue Naoya vs. TJ Doheny, UNDISPUTED @ 122lbs

This is the sort of fight that the tweener divisions and shrinking of the talent pool inevitably throw up. If Doheny, the 37 year old Irishman who turned pro at 25, were to win then it would be one of the biggest upsets since the turn of the millennium.

Prediction: Inoue by KO/TKO in rounds 1-3

Sep. 3rd - Takei Yoshiki vs. Higa Daigo, WBO @ 118lbs

I've seen Takei fight live. He was obviously going to beat Moloney when they fought in May and yet I called for him to lose, I had my reasons then but I have no such attachment to Higa.

Prediction: Takei by KO/TKO in the middle rounds

Sep. 7th - Thammanoon Niyomtrong vs. Alex Winwood, WBA @ 105lbs

Niyomtrong, also known as Knockout CP Freshmart (Thai fighters are often renamed after their gym or sponsor), has one of the worst knockout ratios of any beltholder in boxing today. But he is a seasoned vet. And Winwood, at 4-0, is not.

Prediction: Niyomtrong by unanimous decision

Sep. 14th - Saúl 'Canelo' Álvarez vs. Edgar Berlanga, WBA/WBC/WBO @ 168lbs

Another Grito de Independencia weekend, another year where Canelo does not face "The Mexican Monster" David Benavidez. He will instead fight an American (of Puerto Rican descent), Berlanga, who is not exactly a marquee name.

Canelo should win this one. He'll undoubtedly feel more confident about it than a fight against a boogeyman like El Monstruo. Benavidez wants the payday against Canelo, but while biding his time he should fight David Morrell sooner rather than later. Though now Benavidez is lined up to face the winner of Beterbiev-Bivol, there's every chance he just chooses to avoid the risk.

Prediction: Canelo by unanimous decision

Sep. 14th - Erislandy Lara vs. Danny Garcia, WBA @ 160lbs

It's a little strange to see these names matched against each other in a world where Showtime Boxing no longer exists. Lara fought in March but hadn't fought for nearly 2 years before then, someone must've forgotten to pass him the memo as he impressed with a second round knockout. Garcia hasn't fought for over 2 years at this point. His last two fights were a 2020 loss to Erroll Spence at 147 and a 2022 victory at 154, and now he's trying to move up to 160. Swift is a good boxer and the younger man, though I believe Lara is still the better boxer. If Lara wins, it might well put him in the conversation for a long-awaited Canelo rematch now that the Crawford fight isn't happening.

Prediction: Lara by unanimous decision

Sep. 21st - Daniel Dubois vs. Anthony Joshua, IBF @ +200lbs

I've seen Joshua fight live and had the good fortune of being there when he knocked out Klitschko. Joshua should win this fight. I always think this and yet cannot escape the urge to doubt him. Dubois got stopped by a jab from the number one heavyweight in the world, then bounced back with TKO wins over Miller and Hrgović, which ultimately doesn't tell us much because you'd expect Joshua to knock them both out with ease as well. Dubois could land a big shot, but at a certain point we have to accept that Joshua doesn't get hit by them all that often. And Joshua presumably hits harder than Usyk.

Prediction: Joshua by KO/TKO in the first half of the fight

Sep. 21st - Anthony Cacace vs. Josh Warrington, IBF @ 130lbs

Cacace was slightly fortunate in his upset win over Cordina, though he's nowhere near as lucky who as Josh Warrington who is now waltzing into his 3rd straight title fight despite losing the previous two. As a matter of principle, I hope Warrington loses.

Prediction: Cacace by unanimous decision

Sep. 28th - Noel Mikaelian vs. Ryan Rozicki, WBC @ 200lbs

This fight was originally scheduled for June. My prediction remains unchanged.

Prediction: Mikaelian by unanimous decision

Slight misinformation from ESPN's boxing schedule which claims that Alvarez-Berlanga is undisputed even though the IBF belt is not on the line (plus they spelt Lara's name wrong).

Joshua-Dubois was announced as sold out and news outlets (and Darren Fletcher during his football commentary on TNT Sports) happily carried the press release. Nevermind that there were still a handful of first-hand General Admission tickets (and a heap of second-hand resale tickets) available on Ticketmaster. It didn't even matter that there were "a limited number of Platinum and Hospitality tickets remaining" before the capacity was increased. Words just don't mean anything in the 21st century. And big media fact-checking has seemingly continued to decline unabated since Chris Atkins's Starsuckers and Ryan Holiday's Trust Me, I'm Lying. This small media outlet might well be the only place in the entire history of the internet and written word to feel like these events were worth documenting.

It was very funny to see people booing Mayweather vs Gotti III 2 for not being an entertaining match. You'd almost think those people had never seen a Mayweather fight before. The kind of people who are buying tickets to a Floyd Mayweather exhibition are the kind of eskimos who would buy ice if you insisted it was The Best Ever and used outdated 'before' photos to promote it.

I missed that Ring Magazine had a pretty cool cover last month, I'd love to know who did the art for this but they don't appear to have been credited. Will update with an edit if I find out.

Lastly, I'll quickly touch on....

The Unserious Culture War

The editorial position of PrizeFighting has been to pull no punches in unrequited squabbles against enemies who don't know this site even exists. Besides maybe Edward Hearn and Daniel Rafael, on these pages no one has drawn more ire or heat for being wrong about things or annoying in some way than Steve Bunce. And I am here today to apologise unreservedly to him.

The unmissable controversy of the summer was the Olympic furore surrounding Algeria's Imane Khelif and Chinese Tapei's (or Taiwan's) Lin Yu-ting. The IBA, who stood to directly benefit from attacking the credibility of the Olympics, made claims about the two boxers which were uncritically picked up by a big media who happily carried the press release. A worrying number of people believe everything they read when it supports their world view or current situation and parroted the unfounded and unevidenced claims, including:

• Angela Carini, Italian """boxer"""
• Anna Luca Hámori, Hungarian boxer
• J.D. Vance, Senator for Ohio and Vice Presidential candidate on the Republican ticket in the U.S. 2024 election
• Giorgia Meloni, La Duce
• Lisa Nandy, Member of British Parliament for Wigan (Lab) + Culture, Media, and Sport secretary in the UK government
• Nicola Adams, one of the most accomplished boxers in the history of women's boxing
• Claressa Shields, one of the most accomplished boxers in the history of women's boxing
• J.K. Rowling, wealthy bigot
• Joe Rogan, wealthy bigot with a podcast
• Elon Musk, apartheid fortune heir and corporate welfare queen
• Audley Harrison, Olympic gold medallist in super-heavyweight boxing in 2000
• Logan Paul and Jake Paul, damning indictments of American society
• Caitlyn Jenner, killed Kim Howe in 2015
• Riley Gaines, mediocre swimmer and right-wing grifter
• Tulsi Gabbard, mugwump
• Reem Alsalem, United Nations Special Rapporteur on Violence against Women and Girls
• Sean Ingle, chief sports reporter and columnist at The Grauniad
• Michelle Ferreri, Member of Canadian Parliament for Peterborough–Kawartha (Con)
• Kerry-Lynne Findlay, Member of Canadian Parliament for South Surrey-White Rock (Con)
• Barry McGuigan, former boxer
• Camilla Long, nepobaby

And depressingly far too many more than I could possibly hope to name & shame here. This was a concerted cyberbullying campaign that drew out the worst in people from all continents and walks of life. But you know who didn't drink the kool-aid? You know who looked at the facts on the ground and reached the sensible conclusion? You know who told the truth when it would've been infinitely easier to go along with the lie? My most unlikely bet for being a voice of reason: Steve Bunce. And for that, he's earned my respect. It must be said that other people also spoke out in support of common sense and decency too:

• Thomas Bach, President of the International Olympic Committee
• Nadia Whittome, Member of British Parliament for Nottingham East (Lab)
• Kate Osborne, Member of British Parliament for Jarrow and Gateshead East (Lab)
• Zarah Sultana, Member of British Parliament for Coventry South (Lab)
• Mark Cuban, capitalist
• Waseem Abu Sal, the first Palestinian Olympic boxer
• Riyad Mahrez, Algerian footballer who won the Premier League with Leicester
• Shannon Sharpe, host of Club Shay Shay
• Robert Griffin III, former quarterback for the Washington ********
• Kamaru Usman, UFC fighter
• Derek Brunson, UFC fighter

And there were undoubtedly more on this side of history. Though I'm still going to credit Buncey especially for speaking out immediately, forcefully, and repeatedly in a very public way. He's now officially alright in my book. I worry that he'll whittle away at this blank slate with bad boxing opinions over time but it's nice to know I can count on him to stick up for the truth when it matters.