October 2024 boxing predictions

The September Report

• One of my hotter takes is professional boxers shouldn't be allowed to fight past 35 unless they're a reigning (or highly-ranked former) champion who is in good physical health. Old man Doheny threw out his back in a slightly anti-climactic ending. But that's preferable to seeing him take further punishment to the head.
  • Prediction: Inoue by KO/TKO in rounds 1-3
  • Result: Inoue by TKO 7
• Lots of guts on display in this one. Higa earned comparisons to Ippo Makunouchi for his performance, though if you know how terrible Ippo is at boxing then you would know that's a horrifying thought. In the 11th Takei was hit with a rabbit punch, slipped at an inopportune time, and the referee called a very unfair knockdown. But he had banked enough rounds for it to thankfully be immaterial. Entertaining fight overall.
  • Prediction: Takei by KO/TKO in the middle rounds
  • Result: Takei by unanimous decision
• This prediction came very late in the day because I missed this fight was even happening until the day of the fight. I can't believe Niyomtrong (Knockout CP Freshmart) scored a knockdown.
  • Prediction: Niyomtrong by unanimous decision
• Result: Niyomtrong by majority decision
• I like Berlanga. He has a lot of personality and made it an entertaining fight. Canelo has now had four straight fights where he was unable to get a knockout win despite dominating each contest and even scoring knockdowns in all four. It's actually been three years since his last stoppage win but while I'm glad I didn't have to hear Mauro Ranallo shout "MAMMA MIA!", I did have to suffer through 12 rounds of terrible commentary and awkward banter between him and Joe Goossen.
  • Prediction: Canelo by unanimous decision
  • Result: Canelo by unanimous decision
• In his All The Smoke interview last week Danny Garcia said that "As a fighter, you always want to fight". On fight night that became "Yeah, I'm done" after Lara, the ageless Cuban wonder, put in another strong performance. Garcia's punch output was criminally deficient, he should've said no más much sooner if he wasn't even going to try to put up a fight. The commentary in this fight especially irked me. And my apologies for missing that this was a catchweight bout at 157.
  • Prediction: Lara by unanimous decision
  • Result: Lara by RTD 9
• Most of this prediction was written back when the fight was announced in June. Apart from the last 26 words. It just felt like Joshua would not win (mainly stemming from my distrust of Ben Davison) and I had to do mental gymnastics to tell myself to reach the "right" result. There's not much reason to dabble in counter-factuals, Dubois did land big shots. And Joshua got hit by them. Often. A well-earned victory for Dynamite.
  • Prediction: Joshua by KO/TKO in the first half of the fight
  • Result: Dubois by KO 5
• So long Josh Warrington, here's hoping he doesn't pick up his gloves again. Or at least hoping he doesn't get another title fight.
  • Prediction: Cacace by unanimous decision
  • Result: Cacace by unanimous decision

Right winner called in 6 out of 7 fights. Cacace-Warrington really was a lucky (and slightly bitter) guess which balances out the L that I took in not listening to my doubts about Joshua. Mikaelian-Rozicki has been delayed a second time. October looks to be the busiest month so far this year. Three cards with world title bouts happening in three consecutive days in Japan alone? What a time to be alive.

October Schedule

Oct. 4th - Janibek Alimkhanuly vs. Andrei Mikhailovich, IBF @ 160lbs

Originally scheduled for July but delayed when Janibek dehydrated to the point of being hospitalised. Is this that new-fangled 'Qazaq style' I've been hearing about? Triple G would never. This is probably the best chance Mikhailovich could hope for to become a titlist despite the fight being announced on short notice. If he does win, unfortunately the WBO middleweight title would be automatically vacated because boxing is a silly sport. On the fence but I'm going to defer to status quo bias.

Prediction: Alimkhanuly by KO/TKO in the middle rounds

Oct. 5th - Nick Ball vs. Ronny Rios, WBA @ 126lbs

I called that Ball would lose his fights in March & June and was wrong both times. Rios has done well to get himself back in another world title fight. But Ball is the younger fighter and he's got a lot of heart, it's time to back the kid.

Prediction: Ball by KO/TKO in the second half of the fight

Oct. 12th - Sivenathi Nontshinga vs. Yabuki Masamichi, IBF @ 108lbs

Nontshinga proved to be a game fighter when he overcame a knockdown and scored a knockout win over Curiel earlier this year. But Yabuki is called Yabuki.

Prediction: Yabuki by KO/TKO in rounds 1-3

Oct. 12th - Jai Opetaia vs. Jack Massey, IBF @ 200lbs

Jack who?

Prediction: Opetaia by KO/TKO in the first half of the fight

Oct. 12th - Artur Beterbiev vs. Dmitry Bivol, UNDISPUTED @ 175lbs

The biggest 'boxer vs puncher' match in a while and likely the biggest all-Soviet/Russian fight in professional boxing history. My bias is that I'll usually favour the puncher. Beterbiev will be turning 40 in January but his punches still have the unerring reliability of a Kalashnikov. Bivol is a fine boxer, I just don't know if I would call him a great boxer just yet. And Malik Zinad, not exactly a top light-heavyweight, was able to find some success against Bivol in his last outing.

Prediction: Beterviev by KO/TKO in final three rounds

Oct. 13th - Teraji Kenshiro vs. Cristofer Rosales, WBC @ 112lbs

A good match-up on paper. Rosales has had a slow road back to title contention since winning his first belt by knockout in Japan over 6 years ago. He'll be fighting for the same belt in Japan once more. But I get the feeling Teraji won't let the rerun come to pass. Plus out of the predictions I made in January, he's one of only two of the fighters who hasn't lost yet. Granted, he hasn't actually fought since January.

Prediction: Teraji by unanimous decision

Oct. 13th - Iwata Shokichi vs. Jairo Noriega, WBO @ 108lbs

I can't for the life of me remember the last time a Spaniard challenged for a world title but Noriega has played the rankings game and gotten his reward. However, the problem with playing the rankings game is that the fighter oftens tend to lose when they meet a true vet for the first time.

Prediction: Iwata by KO/TKO in the first half of the fight

Oct. 13th - Seigo Yuri Akui vs. Thananchai Charunphak, WBA @ 112lbs

Yuri Auki is the other surviving member of the January cohort. And he didn't let me down in May. We go again!

Prediction: Yuri Akui by unanimous decision

Oct. 14 - Anthony Olascuaga vs. Jonathan Gonzalez, WBO @ 112lbs

Princesa is one of a handful of boxers worth keeping an eye on. And he's taking on another live one as La Bomba Gonzalez, WBO titlist @ 108lbs, looks to move up from a tweener to a real flyweight. Gonzalez has the experience, I'm just not sure if he has the punch or punch resistance.

Prediction: Olascuaga by KO in the middle rounds

Oct. 14th - Tanaka Kōsei vs. Phumelele Cafu, WBO @ 115lbs

Cafu is ranked #8 by the WBO in his division and turned 20 years old at the end of September. This will be his first fight ever outside of South Africa. Tanaka has stacked the deck but I'm going to believe in the underdog.

Prediction: Cafu by split decision

Oct. 14th - Nakatani Junto vs. Tasana Salapat, WBC @ 118lbs

Salapat, also known as 'Petch CP Freshmart' and 'Petch Sor Chitpattana', is challenging for his first world title with a record 76-1 (53KO), a remarkable outlier in an era where boxers are increasingly getting world title shots within 15 fights of their debut. His one loss was at the end of 2018 to Inoue Takuma and it doesn't take a genius to know that Nakatani is a better boxer than Takuma-弟さん. Nakatani has had two fights this year, I predicted he'd win both of them by KO/TKO in the second half the fight and he won them both in the first half of the fight. Time for a course correction.

Prediction: Nakatani by KO/TKO in the first half of the fight

Oct. 19th - Bakhram Murtazaliev vs. Tim Tszyu, IBF @ 154lbs

Tszyu had some rotten luck in his last fight. It wasn't only the unusual cut, the ceaseless trickle of blood, and the debatable split decision loss, but the fact that his original opponent dropped out at short notice and had a completely style different style to the one his training camp was set up for. There should be no excuses in this fight.

Prediction: Tszyu by KO/TKO in the first half of the fight

Oct. 19th - William Scull vs. Vladimir Shishkin, IBF @ 168lbs

Canelo's stripped belt is up for grabs in a bout featuring two undefeated fighters who are both over the age of 30 and have had 38 professional fight between them. Most boxing fans have never heard of them and will likely never hear from the defeated fighter after this. I'm going to back Scull because he's Cuban but his amateur credentials are hard to verify. This one could just as easily go the other way as Shishkin had a good amateur career too.

Prediction: Scull by unanimous decision

Other bits and pieces

A sportswriter at The Telegraph was denied entry to Wembley for the Joshua-Dubois fight after writing a piece criticising sportswashing the day before the fight. A Telegraph editorial concurred with the aggrieved writer that "Barring our reporter was an affront to free speech". It's worth remembering that the UK does not have a codified constitution and there is no First Amendment like they have across the pond. There was no guarantee of a 'right to free speech' until the UK signed up to the European Convention on Human Right (ECHR) - Article 10 covers 'freedom of expression' - with the Human Rights Act 1998. Before that you used to just trust that the government wasn't trying to censor you, like how staff at polling stations used to just trust you when you asked for a ballot paper. It's worth remembering that The Telegraph has long flown the flag of Euroscepticism and regularly features editorials which are distrustful of current human rights laws and the European courts which adjudicate on them. It's also worth remembering that freedom of speech means that the state cannot stop you writing a piece that says Riyadh Season is turning "Britain’s capital into a Saudi Disneyland", it doesn't mean that you should expect free tickets to Disneyland.

A lot of the talk is going to be about Anthony Joshua and relitigating if he should retire. Not enough of the talk is about Daniel Dubois and his laudable climb to the top. After the Joyce loss, there were questions about his heart (and his "medial orbital fractures"). Then came a string of decent matchmaking to line him up for a legitimate shot against the top heavyweight in the world. A shot that he was not able to take and which resulted in a journey to the title looking like it could be years away. But in 2024, the stars aligned. Anthony Joshua forwent an opportunity to become three-time heavyweight champion of the world by fighting Francis Ngannou instead of facing the IBF's #1 contender (and mandatory for their belt) Filip Hrgovic.

It's easy to say with hindsight that Joshua could have fought Hrgovic, likely won, picked up mandatory challenger status and then he would've been promoted champion instead of Dubois. But the road left untravelled was so plain to see that I was able to write about with foresight back in February because the permutations were clear all the way back in October 2023. Instead, Dubois took the chances. Dubois put an end to the Miller charade. Dubois fought Hrgovic and beat him better than Zhang did. Dubois gave Anthony Joshua the most one-sided loss of his professional career. It's unlikely to happen because of promotional clamouring for an immediate rematch but I would prefer to see Dubois fight Zhang. With that name on his résumé, he would have an irrefutable claim to being the second-best heavyweight in the world (barring an upset win of Fury over Usyk). And with both Fury and Usyk likely retiring before the end of this decade, Dubois, who turned 27 earlier this month, could well become undisputed heavyweight champion of the world in the fast-approaching future.
Joshua should fight Parker if he wants to prove that he's at least as good as 'the old AJ'.