May 2024 boxing predictions

The April Report

• It's not the first one I didn't watch this year. But it is the first one I'll admit to not watching.
  • Prediction: Murtazaliev by unanimous decision.
  • Result: Murtazaliev by KO 11.
• A lot of Garcia's doubters are eating humble pie. I'm excusing myself from the table since this game of predictions is about title fights. Haney-Garcia became a non-title fight as soon as Garcia decided he wanted the weight advantage going into the fight instead of the belt coming out of it. A calculated move since there are so many belts available that another opportunity will inevitably pop up. I was hoping to see that all of Garcia's bizarre behaviour really was an act and performance-art trolling but that sadly doesn't seem to be the case.
  • Prediction: Haney by stoppage/retirement in rounds 10-12.
  • Result: Garcia by majority decision (missed weight), Haney keeps the title.
    • I wrote all of the above before the news about Garcia testing positive for stuff he shouldn't be on and man do I feel vindicated for coping instead of immediately throwing Haney under the bus.

I still can't shake the feeling that I might have missed a fight somewhere. Like I said in the April predictions, only two title fights feels too low (and even that ended up getting halved). Then again there are a bunch of fights in May to make up the difference. If I did miss one, you'll hear about it in a month's time.

May Schedule

May 4th - Saúl 'Canelo' Álvarez vs Jaime Munguía, Undisputed @ 168lbs

Another Cinco de Mayo weekend, another year where Canelo does not face "The Mexican Monster" David Benavidez. He will instead fight compatriot, Munguía, the first Mexican opponent Canelo's facing since his 2017 fight against Julio César Chávez Junior.

Canelo should win this one. He'll undoubtedly feel more confident about it than a fight against a boogeyman like El Monstruo. Benavidez wants the payday against Canelo, but while biding his time he should fight David Morrell sooner rather than later.

Prediction: Canelo by UD.

May 4th - Emmanuel Rodríguez vs. Nishida Ryosukeda, IBF @ 118lbs

The experienced champion versus the ambitious but green challenger. Nishida will likely never have a better chance as Rodríguez is coming out of a baffling October retirement to defend the belt he won in August. That said it's probably too big of a step up for the Japanese hometown fighter.

Prediction: Rodríguez by unanimous decision.

May 6th - Inoue Naoya vs Luis Nery, UNDISPUTED @ 122lbs

The only things certain in life are death, taxes, and Inoue being a kayo artiste.

Prediction: Inoue by KO/TKO in the first half of the fight.

May 6th - Inoue Takuma vs. Ishida Sho, WBA @ 118lbs

The most wrong I've been so far in this predictions game was when I called Takuma Inoue to lose his title in February. The sensible thing to do would be to give him a fair shake and the respect he deserves. Sometimes it's more fun to follow your gut and just double down on being bitter. I have no choice but to follow the rest of Takuma's reign through the eyes of a hater who wants to see him slip up.

Prediction: Ishida by KO/TKO in the first half the fight.

May 6th - Jason Moloney vs. Takei Yoshiki, WBO @ 118lbs

I called Moloney beating Sanchez by decision in January when I started this crazy journey. How time flies, eh? Now, Takei has a strong kickboxing record, is younger, taller, has hometown advantage, and has been knocking people out in style. I saw him on the undercard of Inoue-Butler and vividly remember his opponent's cornerman and their exasperated screams at Bruno getting his ass kicked.

Moloney should lose. But you know what? If I'm gonna follow Takuma's reign to see him lose because he proved me wrong, I'll balance it out by backing Moloney to the hilt because he proved me right.

Prediction: Moloney by unanimous decision.

May 6th - Seigo Yuri Akui vs. Kuwahara Taku, WBA @ 112lbs

Seigo Yuri Akui was another one of the fighters I picked in January and was right about. Now that I think about it, if I didn't get a 100% record in January I might not have started this website. I genuinely owe these guys some loyalty because as dumb as boxing can be, it's been fun getting back into it.

Prediction: Yuri Akui by KO/TKO in the second half of the fight.

May 11th - Vasiliy Lomachenko vs. George Kambosos Jr., IBF (vacant) @ 135lbs

Loma, you were the chosen one! It was said that you would dominate the p4p rankings, not fall off them! Bring balance to boxing, not leave it in darkness! The loss to Salido was one of the most distasteful fights I've ever seen, ya threw away the Teó fight, and lost a could've-gone-either-way decision to Devin Haney. One of the greatest amateur boxers in history, now 36, and the path to professional greatness looks unclear.

Another belt is as good a restart as any. Kambosos is coming off of two losses to Devin Haney and what should've been a third straight loss against Maxi Hughes. He did beat Teó though. Then again I've long said boxing of the day is always a question of "what have you done lately?" so I'm going to go with form on this one.

Prediction: Lomachenko by unanimous decision.

May 18th - Oleksandr Usyk vs Tyson Fury, UNDISPUTED @ Heavyweight

A fight of this magnitude, and ramblings of my nature, necessitated a separate post.

Prediction: Usyk by UD. (With a remote chance of Fury deciding that a DQ might not look as bad.)

May 18th - Jai Opetaia vs Mairis Briedis, IBF (vacant) @ 200lbs

Opetaia is an decent fighter. He’s good switch hitter and has power in both hands. His voluntary defence against Jordan Thompson was so dominant that it was tough to watch, Thompson’s trainer was trying to slap his overmatched fighter back to reality after just one round and the towel came much too late in the 4th. Instead of going up a gear to fight someone on his level, his next mismatch against Ellis Zorro didn’t even last 3 minutes. The IBF was completely right to strip him of his title for not facing #1 contender and former champion, Mairis Briedis, who Opetaia beat in a hard-fought unanimous decision when he won the titles in July 2022.

His undefeated streak continues as the IBF has backed down from anything which could be considered a punishment; Opetaia and Briedis will be fighting for the now vacant IBF cruiserweight belt. Briedis, who turned 39 in January, has not fought since losing to Opetaia nearly two years ago. Yet Opetaia has not exactly kept himself busy with top opposition. And Briedis did inflict significant damage in their first encounter.

Prediction: Opetaia will try to stick and move, hoping to tire Briedis out. I don’t expect Briedis to have fallen off a cliff though, so Briedis by KO/TKO in the second half of the fight.

May 18th - Joe Cordina vs Anthony Cacace, IBF @130lbs

I’d write more of a preview and rationale but Cordina just isn’t a very active boxer and I don’t see Cacace fighting in another world title match if he loses.

Prediction: Cordina by unanimous decision.

May 18th - Emanuel Navarrete vs. Denys Berinchyk, WBO @ 130lbs

This is a box office fight on paper, though I believe Navarrete is a class above Berinchyk and that difference will only become more pronounced as the fight goes on.

Prediction: Navarrete by KO/TKO in the second half of the fight.

I know Lawrence "Big Mac" Okolie is fighting for the bridgerweight title. I'm actively choosing not to concern myself with it. He'll most likely win, but who cares if he doesn't? It doesn't matter. In my eyes, it won't do until the other alphabet orgs and The Ring give up on fighting the tide like they did with every other meme division. Okolie should man up and fight in the heavyweight division.