March 2024 boxing predictions
February could've gone better. Out of the 6 fights, I called the right winner in 4 of them.
- Teó getting at least one card was all but confirmed when Steve Weisfeld was announced to be judging. Bar that scorecard, I don't think it was a robbery as Lopez simply didn't do enough.
- Prediction: López unanimous decision
- Result: López unanimous decision
- I did say Foster-Nova would be close but looking at the betting odds spooked me out of calling Nova winning one of the cards.
- Prediction: Foster by unanimous decision
- Result: Foster by split decision
- Sivenathi Nontshinga was more game than I gave him credit for and proved me wrong. He withstood the onslaught from Curiel and even survived a knockdown to regain the title. These are the surprising moments that make boxing interesting.
- Prediction: Curiel by KO/TKO in the middle rounds
- Result: Nontshinga by TKO 10
- Spare a thought for me, who made a huge deal of Inoue Takuma being feather-fisted only for him to somehow stop Jerwin Ancajas with a body shot. And even before the stoppage he wasn't getting thoroughly outboxed. I hold my hands up that I could scarcely have been more wrong.
- Prediction: Ancajas by unanimous decision
- Result: Inoue by KO 9
- Nakatani extends his undefeated record and saves me further embarrassment.
- Prediction: Nakatani by KO/TKO in the second half of the fight.
- Result: Nakatani by TKO 6
- Rangel was more durable than I expected.
- Prediction: Tanaka by KO/TKO in the middle rounds
- Result: Tanaka by unanimous decision
Fingers crossed I'll have less to cope about in another month's time.
Mar. 2nd - Otabek Kholmatov vs Raymond Ford, WBA (vacant) @ 126lbs
Both fighters are competing in their first world title match for the featherweight belt Leigh Wood vacated late last year. Don't let Kholmatov's record fool you. 12-0 with 11 wins by KO looks impressive on the surface but the quality of opposition leaves a lot to be desired. Both he and Ford have good amateur backgrounds but unless Ford has a suspect chin I feel like it should be a fairly straightforward evening for the American fighter in NYC.
Prediction: Ford by unanimous decision
Mar. 2nd - Luis Alberto Lopez vs. Abe Reiya, IBF @ 126lbs
Abe won a near shut-out win against a 37 year old Kiko Martinez last year. He'll now be fighting outside of Japan for the first time in his first world title challenge. Neither Lopez or Abe are knockout artists so I think it'll be a manageable fight for the 30 year old Lopez.
Prediction: Lopez by unanimous decision
Mar. 2nd - Jonathan González vs. René Santiago, WBO @ 108lbs
Santiago made his debut in 2014 and since then has made his way to the top of the WBO rankings with a record of 12-3 (9 KOs). González also has 3 losses on his record but there are two important things to keep in mind. 1) González has more than twice as many wins, and 2) all 3 of his losses were knockouts. This all Puerto Rican duel should be too big of a step up for Santiago but he has a puncher's chance even if those knockout losses were at 112 lbs. González, however, should be able to do enough to successfully deny him glory.
Prediction: González by unanimous decision.
Mar. 8th - Rey Vargas vs. Nick Ball, WBC @ 126lbs
British boxers tend to overwhelm the world stage with numbers rather than world class talent. That's not to say they're bad boxers, just that a lot of them struggle when facing top non-British opposition. Those with a strong amateur pedigree slightly less so but by-and-large they're predictable without having mastered predictable orthodox boxing in the way Eastern European boxers have. The difference makers tend to be those who make up the slack with knockout power. I'm not sure Ball has what it takes.
Prediction: Vargas by unanimous decision
Mar. 8th - Israil Madrimov vs Magomed Kurbanov, WBA (vacant?) @ 154lbs
Jermell Charlo was declared "champion-in-recess" by the WBA at the end of January so his title is up for grabs until he decides he wants it back I suppose. I've followed boxing for over 15 years now and even I still think it's difficult to understand sometimes. If Charlo does come back, I guess I've been tricked into paying attention to a regular/silver/secondary non-title fight. If not, this is for all the marbles and both Madrimov and Kurbanov will both be in their first real title fight on the Saudi 'Knockout Chaos' undercard.
Madrimov has fewer fights on his record with a record of 9-0-1 since making his debut over 5 years ago. But his 2 fights per year are more excusable when you consider that he's only had one walkover fight and has travelled abroad on occasion too. Kurbanov (25-0, 13 KOs) never fought outside Russia, where his last bout saw him win a generous decision over the oft hard done-by Michel Soro. Not the first generous decision of his career I might add. The potential for questionable scorecards aside, this should be a good contest. I suspect Madrimov will have to go for the knockout but Kurbanov doesn't hurt easily.
Prediction: Madrimov by unanimous decision.
Mar. 30th - Rolando Romero vs. Isaac Cruz, WBA @ 140lbs
From their performances against mutual opponent Gervonta 'Tank' Davis, I believe Cruz is the sharper fighter. 'Rolly' Romero ironically doesn't roll with punches too well so I expect Cruz to find the mark and to make the move up to 140 with a bang.
Prediction: Cruz by KO/TKO in the last third of the fight.
Mar. 30th - Erislandy Lara vs. Michael Zerafa, WBA @ 160lbs
Neither Lara nor Zerafa fought in 2023. Lara was due to fight Danny "Swift" Garcia, with Zerafa due to challenge the winner, but that fight fell through and both of them rested on their laurels. What's especially odd is that Zerafa if had foregone the WBA rankings and focused on the IBF, he would have already gotten a title shot by now. Perhaps he prefers his chances against the 40 year old Cuban.
Lara is not the fighter he was 10 years ago. And given that this is his first fight in nearly 2 years, ring rust may play a big part. Though Zerafa isn't exactly top competition either. This one really could go either way.
Prediction: Lara by unanimous decision.
Mar. 30th - Sebastian Fundora vs. Serhii Bohachuk, WBC (vacant) @ 154lbs
Another one of Charlo's belts that have been "vacated" while he's champion-in-recess. Fundora is coming back from his knockout loss to Brian Mendoza last April and is waltzing straight into a title fight. I couldn't explain it if you asked me to and doubt the WBC would do a much better job. Fundora and Bohachuk have sparred hundreds of rounds together, the last time being over 4 years ago. Maybe I'm reading too much into it but Fundora spoke about how he'd love a unification bout with Tszyu "if" they both win their fights. Sparring is sparring but when there's this much history between two fighters you'd expect a bit more confidence. Going straight into this match without a tune-up bout after a knockout loss also can't be ideal for Fundora.
Prediction: Bohachuk by KO/TKO in the second half of the fight
Mar. 30th - Arsen Goulamirian vs Gilberto Ramírez, WBA @ 200lbs
Ramírez, the Mexican throwback fighter who began his career at middleweight, is now moving up to cruiserweight. The former 168lbs titlist unsuccessfully challenged Bivol at 175lbs in a one-sided loss, though he's hardly the only man to suffer that fate. After a catchweight title eliminator at 190lbs, Ramírez is now looking to dethrone Goulamirian. The undefeated European has only had one fight in the past 4 years, in contrast with Ramírez who has had 6 fights in the same time period. Cruiserweight is historically not a competitive division so there's every chance Goulamirian has been enjoying 'big fish in a small pond' status, even more so since this will be only his second fight outside of France/Belgium. Ramírez is a good enough fighter to shake up the division.
Prediction: Ramírez by unanimous decision.
I thought Tszyu-Thurman was for Tszyu's WBO title @ 154lbs but apparently it's a non-title fight. And lastly, there is also the Joshua-Ngannou fight on March 8th. I wrote about that seperately and more extensively here. The Saudi promotion has released a fantastic promo trailer and even a retro-inspired mobile phone game on knockoutchaos.com. It seems like the game is more difficult if you play as Joshua. A sign of things to come mayhaps? In any case, this is the most effort I've seen put into fight promotion in my lifetime. I very much look forward to seeing how things will ramp up as we approach Vision 2030 and beyond. Could boxing finally be getting up off the canvas...?