July 2025 boxing predictions

The June Report

• Nakatani AKA 'Critical Hit' does it again as Nishida is the first of the disputed bantamweight titlists to say 'ノ マス'. The WBA beltholder, Tsutsumi (AKA 'Saint Seiya'), has been declared a champion-in-recess after what the WBA describes as "health issues" and what newly-promoted titlist Antonio Vargas describes as "an injury that will sideline [Tsutsumi] for several months". Neither Vargas nor Takei Yoshiki should prove too much trouble for Nakatani's seemingly unstoppable rise.
  • Prediction: Nakatani by KO/TKO in the middle rounds
  • Result: Nakatani by RTD 6
• I'll stop being an Opetaia detractor if he knocks out Zurdo or puts a Paul brother in a coma.
  • Prediction: Opetaia by TKO 4
  • Result: Opetaia by KO 5
• Richardson Hitchins with a dominant knockout victory followed by immediately upsetting Eddie Hearn? This guy is quickly becoming one of the more likeable fighters in boxing today.
  • Prediction: Hitchins by unanimous decision
  • Result: Hitchins by TKO 8
• It should have been a unanimous decision for Simsri. Araneta was woefully inactive for much of the fight, he scored an aesthetic knockdown in the 3rd round but his consequential punches across 12 rounds tallied in the single digits. One judge had it 6-6 even, with the 10-8 round giving Araneta the dubious but inconsequential nod.
  • Prediction: Simsri by unanimous decision
  • Result: Simsri by split decision
• Another knockout of the year contender. Norman Jr. beat the snot out of Sasaki!
  • Prediction: Norman Jr. by KO/TKO in the middle rounds
  • Result: Norman Jr. by KO 5
• Gilberto 'Zurdo' Ramirez is the kind of fighter who lives down to expectations.
  • Prediction: Ramirez by unanimous decision
  • Result: Ramirez by unanimous decision

6/6 fights called correctly and I even noted that Hitchins was capable of getting the stoppage. We're so back!

July Schedule

Jul. 12th - Alberto Puello vs. Subriel Matias, WBC @ 140lbs

Matias let me down against Paro, I'll give him one more chance because I don't think Puello is going to be as active.

Prediction: Matias by KO/TKO in the second half of the fight

Jul. 12th - Shakur Stevenson vs. William Zepeda, WBC @ 135lbs

Turki Alalshikh tweeted "I will be very upset if Berlanga and Zepeda knock out Sheeraz and Shakur. We have big plans for Sheeraz and Shakur, and this result would be a complete disaster...!" I do not expect him to be very upset by the result, but tickets for Ring III seem to be selling slowly. The Ring sent out an email last month about an "an exclusive ticket presale" along with a code, though the exclusivity was questionable since it was shared via The Ring's social media too. Most, recently the Ring Magazine website even published an article titled "How To Purchase Tickets For ‘Ring III’ On July 12 At Louis Armstrong Stadium In New York" which includes the helpful advice "If you can’t attend the card, it can be viewed via DAZN Pay-Per-View in the United States (6 p.m. ET; $59.99) and United Kingdom (11 p.m. BST; £24.99)." It's a decent card, but given the unknown elements of music concerts and look-alike gimmicks as well as the known element of the main event having an almost certain outcome (inadvertently reinforced by Alalshikh's tweet), I can see why they're struggling to draw a crowd. The PPV sales may be quite low too as fans will likely save their money for the big fight the following weekend instead. At this point, surely it'd be more profitable to stream fights for free on YouTube/Twitch/TikTok and collect ad revenue? The big Netflix gamble in September is looking more and more important.

Prediction: Stevenson by unanimous decision

Jul. 19th - Oleksandr Usyk vs. Daniel Dubois, UNDISPUTED @ heavyweight

Louis. Marciano. Patterson. Liston. Ali. Frazier. Foreman. Tyson. Dubois? One of the unwritten reasons I picked Usyk over Fury (twice) is that I just couldn't see Fury being part of this line-up and I'm having a lot of trouble seeing Dubois joining it either. Yes, he's had three decent wins, but they're three wins that I would expect Usyk to have gotten too. This fight will come down to if Dubois can land a power shot on Usyk as he did against Joshua, though Usyk is a better boxer than Joshua. And Fury, who I consider a more versatile boxer than Dubois, landed very little of substance against Usyk in their 24 rounds last year. Surely this will be a rerun of their last fight? Usyk isn't going to get old overnight, is he? Does anyone see the heavyweight divison or boxing in general thriving with Daniel Dubois as the top fighter in the world? He has a lot of new fans from knocking Joshua silly, and while I'm not convinced he'll do the same to Usyk, I am somewhat worried that he could. If Dubois wins it'll be the death of the 'Triple Knee' nickname.

Prediction: Usyk by KO/TKO in the second half of the fight

Jul. 19th - Jesse 'Bam' Rodriguez vs. Phumelele Cafu, WBC/WBO @ 115lbs

There are many fighters who win a belt and then plug away at mandatories while squirreling together paydays but Cafu, the only African national to be world champion at present, has made a beeline towards a top competitor in a unification bout. I have a lot of time and respect for those kinds of fighters. Bam is a top fighter, Cafu should lose, but it feels like Matchroom are overdue another loss.

Prediction: Cafu by split decision

Jul. 19th - Sebastian Fundora vs. Tim Tszyu, WBC/WBO @ 154lbs

In my analysis of their first fight I figured Tszyu would get the knockout and after the somewhat upset I thought an immediate rematch was in order. It did not work out that way. In his next fight Tszyu got into a fire-fight with IBF titlist Murtazaliev, resulting in a 3rd round knockout loss after getting dropped 4 times. He's had a tune-up bout since then, as Fundora did in making quick work of his stay-busy opponent, both achieving victory by 4th round TKO earlier in the year. Tszyu made a good fight of it in their first match despite the gruesome cut but I wonder if his confidence is shot after being stopped so convincingly? His fan-friendly style is great for spectators, though in that loss it was a detriment to his career prospects. I think Tszyu should be able to outwork and pressure Fundora, then again he should have been able to do it in the first fight. As things stand, Fundora has my reluctant endorsement.

Prediction: Fundora by unanimous decision

Jul. 19th - Mario Barrios vs. Manny Pacquiao, WBC @ 147lbs

Do not adjust your eyes, they are not deceiving you. Pacman is back at 46 years old to have his 73rd bout. To put this into some context, this man has been fighting professionally for longer than I've been alive. 4 years since his last ring appearance, he has had more fights than current welterweight titlists Mario Barrios and Brian Norman combined. Earlier this year I was having a discussion about boxing with knowledgeable friends and somebody posited that "today's welterweight division is so shallow that a Pacquiao or Mayweather could come back and become champion." Nobody raised any objections at the time. Though I believe time beats every man, I'm not convinced Mario Barrios beats Manny Pacquiao. He might. He should. But I don't think he will.

Prediction: Pacquiao by unanimous decision

Jul. 26th - Xander Zayas vs. Jorge Garcia, WBO @ 154lbs

Remember the good old days of the Mexico-Puerto Rico rivalry? Those feel like a lifetime ago. If tradition is any indicator, the Mexican fighters usually came out on top. I can't claim to be familiar with Garcia's career, but he seems to have boxing ability and a punch. A big step up for Zayas, possibly too big for his first 12 round fight.

Prediction: Garcia by unanimous decision

Don't Worry, Be Happy

Boxing has been an awful sport for the entirety of the time I've followed it. I fell back from the sport when HBO did, watching just a handful of big fights over the next few years, and only really came back to it when Crawford and Spence finally fought. It was a brutal one-sided beatdown in what was supposed to be a competitive fight. Looking back, those are some of my personal favorites (and some of history's biggest fights): Louis-Schmeling II, Liston-Patterson (I & II), Hagler-Hearns, Tyson-Spinks, Jones-Toney, Pacquiao-Hatton, Joshua-Dubois etc. Those kinds of fights are followed closely by the next most satisfying category: fights which are supposed to be one-sided beatdowns but everyone besides me calls it wrong. The Fury-Ngannou match being touted at the time was one such contest.

Time has flown by so quickly you may not have noticed that next week it will have been two years since Tyson Fury vs. Francis Ngannou was announced to the world. I can't remember if I rolled my eyes or if it made no real mark on me after a lifetime of never having seen an undisputed heavyweight title fight. No Wlad-Vitali (седьмая вода на киселе), no Wlad-Wilder (Finkel), no Joshua-Wilder and no Joshua-Fury (Hearn). Then in September 2023, it was teased and finally announced that Fury would be facing the man who took Joshua's belts - from Ukraine, Oleksandr Usyk. Maybe Saudi Arabia would be good for boxing? If the biggest hurdles for the best not fighting were financial, then Getting Ayrab Money might solve everyone's problems?

It certainly gave me some hope. The good fights and the limitless potential of Turki Alalshikh's influence were enough for me to come back in a big way. Why, I even started a website to capture the return of boxing in real time. All the big fights were just around the corner. Bivol-Beterbiev. Tank-Shakur. Tank-Loma. Canelo-Benavidez. Bud-Boots. Steel City Interactive's 'Undisputed' video game would receive a sizeable cash injection. And Turki Alalshikh's first big YouTube interview racked up over 53 million views at the time of writing, where it was pledged that the new regime would support TV series and movies and documentaries. Later in the year, the Golden Boy would part with Ring Magazine and it looked like a new chapter would be written. Everything looked so promising. What happened?

We did get the long-awaited undisputed light heavyweight championship of the world as well as the even-longer-awaited undisputed heavyweight championship of the world. But beyond that? I can't be bothered to line up the complaints. Let me borrow a page from Ring Magazine's book and say 'coming soon' with no indication of when soon will, if ever, arrive. It is impossible to be a boxing fan if you do not learn to accept that this sport is broken. Not broken beyond repair, but broken beyond the control of you or I. There's not much to do but wait and see if Dana White, the man who ran UFC into the ground, can fix things.

No-mas-chenko

Loma retired. It feels like it was a minute ago. I didn't say much at the time because I feel like he'll come back. He's about 10 years younger than Manny Pacquiao so there's plenty of time, and in the lightweight vicinity there are plenty of names.

Habeas corpus

Imane Khelif was in the news again. In an exclusive interview with the Daily Mail, IBA president Umar Kremlev (the man who almost got amateur boxing banned from the Olympics) repeated his not exclusive and well-trodden views that he thinks Khelif shouldn't have been allowed to compete at Paris 2024. As a quick refresher, Khelif (and Taiwan's Lin Yu-Ting) competed at the inaugural IBA Women’s World Boxing Championships in Istanbul. It was in May 2022 that they allegedly failed a still unrevealed test which meant both boxers "didn’t match the eligibility criteria for IBA women’s events" according to the IBA. Despite this, they were allowed to compete in the 2023 competition in New Delhi. It was there, in March 2023, that they were disqualified mid-tournament "due to the failure to meet the IBA eligibility criteria" according to the IBA once more.

What are these eligibility criteria? Well, the way the IBA tells it, their rules state that the "Definition of Women/Female/Girl = individual with chromosome XX". The thing is that the "IBA TECHNICAL & COMPETITION RULES: Effective as of 9 February 2023" and an earlier 2022 version, which covered the 2023 and 2022 competitions respectively, did not include this rule. The rule which disqualified Khelif and Yu-Ting in March 2023 did not exist until "13 May 2023".

See the problem here? Even the IBA's own clarification spells it out that the rules were changed after their decision. And despite claiming that they cannot share evidence of any tests because "We are not allowed to publish these documents without the agreement of the person concerned", they had no qualms sharing a "Confidential & Not for publication" letter sent to Khelif, which said she was disqualified under article 4.2.1, "IBA has the right to make a final decision regarding a Boxer’s eligibility".

And just for good measure, the later versions of the rules from 2023 onwards include the following disclaimer: "Please note that IBA has the authority to amend this document at any given time on the need for an immediate situational change; the document will remain as a live document, but subject to change at any time, and therefore a constant working document." Can you understand why the IOC washed their hands of this organisation?

Alan Abrahamson, webmaster of 3 Wire Sports, claimed in November 2024 that "3 Wire Sports remains the only journalistic outlet to have seen these tests". In June 2025, he reiterated that "3 Wire Sports remains the only journalistic outlet to have seen these 2022 and 2023 tests" and "leaked" a partial 514 x 700 pixel screenshot of the supposed 2023 test. It's a mystery why he chose to crop it instead of sharing the full release and why he didn't share anything of the 2022 test.

Palace Intrigue

Queen Ryan Garcia is, as Oscar De La Hoya so delicately put it, "having another episode". Lol. The Gypsy Queen, Luke Fury, took another loss at Soccer Aid 2025. Lmao. For those unfamiliar, Soccer Aid is an annual event where some of the richest people in the history of humanity spend hours attempting to guilt working-class people into parting with money for charity. The celebrities play a soccer match, where ex-professional English soccer players and celebrities play against international ex-pros and celebs competing as the World XI. This year the event "raised an incredible £15,280,163" which, to put it into context, is reportedly less money than Fury had made by the end of round 3 in the first Usyk fight. In addition to the schadenfreude of seeing England co-manager Fury lose thanks to the amusingly serious Carlos Tevez, it was nice to see people being reminded of how uncouth the would-be heavyweight king was as he dropped pre-watershed cursewords with abandon. At 20:49 in the video you can see the sly edit made to the YouTube video (shared uncensored via official social media), though they missed the "I''ve been screaming and shouting instructions and shit like that" later in the video.