January 2025 boxing predictions

The December Report

• What a rip! Ramirez said no mas and it was interesting to listen to the ESPN team be unsure how to react. Quitting shows a lack of heart and character. But also your health is more important than anything. Does it make Ramirez less of a man and/or less of a champion? Tim Bradley made the good point that for all we know Ramirez might've had a serious health problem, it later turned out that he suffered a "fractura bilateral en hueso orbital derecho".
  • Prediction: Espinoza by KO/TKO in rounds 10-12
  • Result: Espinoza by TKO 6
• What a knockout! Navarrete shut up the haters. (It's me. I'm haters.)
  • Prediction: Valdez by unanimous decision
  • Result: Navarrete by KO 6
• I wanted to say split decision but talked myself out of it because I thought Hitchins should clearly win. It was 116-112 on my card for him, though I could see 115-113 or a draw if you scored his inactive beginning harshly. But 117-111 to Paro is inexcusable. I'm sure it'll be excused though because this is boxing.
  • Prediction: Hitchins by unanimous decision
  • Result: Hitchins by split decision
• The groupthink in British boxing media is quite spectacular. I don't know if they'll ever learn how to score fights properly but even that wouldn't cure them of their shortcomings. It was comical to see them refuse to believe their own eyes as they spun at dizzying speeds, going so far as to claim that Fury ballooning up in a weight is a good thing. They couldn't even keep their story straight about whether or not Fury was stern and unsmiling throughout fight week (showing how serious he is, which is why he'll definitely win) or if he was back to his usual jokey and provocative self (showing how relaxed he is, which is why he'll definitely win). Usyk was the better man and there was nothing to suggest he would falter in the rematch.
  • Prediction: Usyk by unanimous decision
  • Result: Usyk by unanimous decision

Takei-Tongdee, Inoue-Goodman, and Martinez-Ioka all fell apart for one reason or the other, which was a bit of a bummer to end the year on.

January Schedule

Jan. 8th - Jai Opetaia vs David Nyika, IBF @ 200lbs

Nyika is a damn sight better than the cynical matchmaking of one of the better fighters in boxing today choosing to face an unknown German who will be one week shy of his 40th birthday on fight night. It would've been an upset for the ages if Cinkara had won, but Nyika deserves more respect. Though I suspect that later this year I'll still be writing about how much I want Opetaia get his comeuppance.

Prediction: Opetaia by KO/TKO in rounds 7-9

Jan. 24th. - Inoue Naoya vs. Ye Joon Kim, UNDISPUTED @ 122lbs

It'll take more than just a troublemaker to beat Inoue. It'd take an extremely brave man to call an upset.

Prediction: Inoue by KO/TKO in the middle rounds

Decisions, decisions...

In August 1937, Welshman Tommy Farr was the first man to challenge newly crowned heavyweight champion of the world, Joe Louis, for his title. The Brown Bomber injured his right hand early in the contest and spent most of his time picking off the advancing Farr with jabs and left hooks while parrying and catching incoming jabs with his right. Farr became one of the few men who went 15 rounds with Louis and lost what was seen as a clear unanimous decision, his cornermen and fans in attendance gave no inclination that they felt it was the result of foul play. And yet, to this day, there are many people who will insist that it was a close fight and that Louis got a gift decision against Farr. How so? The simple truth is that most people never saw this fight. Especially Farr's fans on the other side of the world who were relying on radio descriptions to get a sense of the live action.

The tricky thing with doing live radio commentary is that you can only ever talk about one thing when there's usually more than one thing happening. The commentator was naturally going to be more inclined to tell listeners (especially British fans who woke up early or stayed up late) more about the actions of Farr. And so it went, Farr's forward-moving aggression was reported with gusto and the ineffectiveness was a trifling detail. If you're constantly hearing one name over another then you could very well come away with the impression that the one pressing the action was a winner. You might even think it's a robbery if the decision is booed at the end. And suspicions of a fix would reach fever pitch if the referee, solely responsible for raising the hand of the winner, approached the loser first before changing tack. All these things happened in Louis-Farr but the facts are clear. Farr got beaten. Badly.

The booing wasn't because people thought Farr got robbed. It was because people thought Louis was a bum for not knocking out an opponent who was so outclassed and hurt. Louis didn't even score a single knockdown, a tough day at the office for a man who had knocked out heavyweight champions Max Baer, Jack Sharkey, Max Schmeling, and 'Cindarella Man' Jim Braddock. Though some thought Farr deserved credit for going the distance with his condition as it was. One of those people was 'Well-Known referee, Arthur Donovan', who later said he committed "one of the worst blunders ever seen in the ring" by going to congratulate Farr's efforts before raising Joe Louis's hand. We even have video of this faux pas.

I can understand how the confusion and technological limitations could lead to describing 1937's Louis-Farr as controversial. I cannot fathom how people came to the conclusion that 2024's Usyk-Fury II was controversial in the slightest. Even Ade Oladipo, once again interviewing Usyk, disrespectfully started by asking if the scorecards were a mistake. I'm not sure why the British media personalities behave this way but my theory is that they end up doing the same thing that political journalists do after spending half a lifetime around politicians, they see their professional colleagues as friends and lose the ability to judge their actions and abilities objectively. The American media presence mostly thought Usyk was running away with the fight, some giving Fury as few as 3 rounds. But the British press pack believed it was much closer, where they saw it largely as a fight where 7 rounds could've gone to either Usyk or Fury and a draw would've been the "fair" result. There were some close rounds and with the right mix of close rounds going one way you could concoct a 114-114 scorecard. However, nobody who knows how to score a fight fairly would give every single close round to one fighter in an arbitrary manner. Louis-Farr still exists in the history books as a controversial decision but neither Usyk-Fury fight should.

According to Fury's rantings as he returned to his changing room, "you're not getting nothing in these countries". It should be noted that Turki Alalshikh (whose country hosted the fight) very much wanted Fury to win. But being the boxing fan that he is, he correctly predicted Usyk would win. And watching the fight from the best seat in the house, he reached the same score as the judges. There is no controversy. The decision is unanimous.