February 2024 boxing predictions

I normally like to make fight predictions closer to fight night since you never have the complete impression of a fighter until the weigh-in. But given how well I did in January (and given the standard of matchmaking), I feel confident enough to make it a little riskier.

There were 8 world title fights scheduled in February 2024 according to ESPN’s schedule. I’ve learned the hard way not to trust ESPN, so I’m fairly confident there were actually 9. But then Fury pulled out of the undisputed fight because he got cut.

For those of you who are worried about my precious time as I watch and predict every world title fight in 2024, keep in mind that championship boxing is 12 x 3-minute rounds. With one minutes rest between each round, that brings a title fight to a 48-minute time commitment – about the same as half a football (or soccer) match. And football matches don’t end early just because one team completely outclasses another. But boxing does have a lot of dead air in between fights, far greater than a 15 minute half-time break, so I imagine the difference will be made up across the cards. Let's hope there are lots of knockouts. On with the predictions.

Feb. 8^th - Teófimo López Jvs. Jamaine Ortiz, Ring/WBO @ 140lbs

Teó should win this one. Jamaine Ortiz only has one loss on his record, his 2022 non-title loss against the boxing phenom, Valisy Lomachenko. But Teó had already beaten Loma in 2020, so this is an even bigger hurdle.

You should never rely too much on “x beat y, who lost to z” logic but I think we can safely assume it applies here.

Prediction: López unanimous decision.

Feb. 16^th - O'Shaquie Foster vs. Abraham Nova, WBC @ 130lbs

According to the bookmakers, Foster is the heavy favourite. It's probably closer than that. Will the boxer (Foster) box his way to a decision? Will the puncher (Nova) punch his way to a knockout win? Nova likely isn't enough of a big puncher to move the needle in his favour, and Foster isn't chinny enough to make up the difference.

Prediction: Foster by unanimous decision.

Feb. 16^th - Adrian Curiel vs. Sivenathi Nontshinga, IBF @ 108lbs

They say no man can step in the same river twice. For it won't be the same river, and he won't be the same man. Curiel won their first fight in November 23 by 2nd round KO by being the aggressor. I'm not convinced Nontshinga will be able to withstand it.

Prediction: Curiel by KO/TKO in the middle rounds.

Feb. 24^th - Inoue Takuma vs. Jerwin Ancajas, WBA @ 118lbs

Spare a thought for Naoya’s little brother, Takuma. He’s a titlist in his own right but a record of 19-1 with only 4 KO wins is always going to be a tough sell. It’d be hard to imagine he’d be anywhere near as talked about if not for his brother’s name.

Ancajas had a five-year reign at junior-bantamweight and is a better puncher, so I expect the seasoned professional to start a new reign.

Prediction: Ancajas by unanimous decision.

Feb. 24^th - Alexandro Santiago vs. Nakatani Junto, WBC @ 118lbs

Santiago won the belt by outpointing Filipino veteran Nonito Donaire last year, though you'd think it would've been by a wider margin against a 40 year old man. Nakatani, former titlist at 112 & 115 lbs, is making the jump up to bantamweight. He also has the home advantage on top of being one of the few Japanese fighters to win a belt abroad.

Prediction: Nakatani by KO/TKO in the second half of the fight.

Feb. 24^th - Tanaka Kōsei vs. Christian Bacasegua Rangel, WBO (vacant) @ 115lbs

Rangel will be in his first world title fight. It's also the first time he's fighting outside of Mexico and the first time he's not fighting a Mexican opponent. Tanaka is the former titlist at 108 & 112 lbs and he's the better puncher. Everyone loves an underdog but this looks to be too big a step up for Rangel.

Prediction: Tanaka by KO/TKO in the middle rounds.