December 2024 boxing predictions

The November Report

• Sometimes a rematch delivers something completely different. Sometimes you get Foster-Conceição II, where rounds 13-24 were as frustrating a bunch of swing rounds as the first twelve. I had Conceição up on my card but it could have just as easily gone to Foster. He continued to try to win on defense instead of offense but it didn't take
  • Prediction: Foster by unanimous decision
  • Result: Foster by split decision
• Boots isn't as slick as he used to be and his best career move would be to avoid moving up to 154lbs for as long as possible.
  • Prediction: Ennis by unanimous decision
  • Result: Ennis by unanimous decision
• I thought this was going to be a get-some-rounds-in type performance but Bam has a very fan-friendly style.
  • Prediction: Rodriguez by unanimous decision
  • Result: Rodriguez by TKO 3
• On what was an awful night for the sport of boxing, this was at least an entertaining fight. Ramos got the better knockdown and had a better second half, I wasn't scoring it but Barrios didn't look very convincing.
  • Prediction: Barrios by unanimous decision
  • Result: 12-round split draw (Barrios retains title)
• Collazo scored one of the most aesthetic knockdowns of the year so far and another two knockdowns afterwards for good measure. The era of Thai boxers ruling the lowest weightclasses might finally be coming to an end.
  • Prediction: Collazo by unanimous decision
  • Result: Collazo by TKO 7
• It's always a good day at the office for a boxer when you don't even look like you've been in a fight while your opponent definitely does. Opetaia-Ramírez is the most obvious and logical match to make in 2025.
  • Prediction: Ramírez by unanimous decision
  • Result: Ramírez by unanimous decision

Brian Norman picked up an injury and his fight with Derrieck Cuevas will presumably take place sometime in 2025.

December Schedule

Dec. 7th - Rafael Espinoza vs. Robeisy Ramirez, WBO @ 126lbs

Stick. (Espinoza wanted it more in the first fight plus Ramirez got hit far too easily for a Cuban fighter.)

Prediction: Espinoza by KO/TKO in rounds 10-12

Dec. 7th - Emanuel Navarrete vs. Oscar Valdez, WBO @ 130lbs

Twist. (Mostly because I didn't like Navarrete's performance against Berinchyk and because I don't like losers rebounding straight into a title shot.)

Prediction: Valdez by unanimous decision

Dec. 7th - Liam Paro vs. Richardson Hitchins, IBF @ 140lbs

I was burned when I said Paro would lose in June but he put in a professional performance. When you google Richardson Hitchins, a fighter I had never heard of until writing this, one of the first results is a tweet from him saying "I'm not only taking over the 140 division I'm taking over boxing period !"
He's not a convincing power puncher but the American fighter has picked his moment carefully and I'm willing to trust his confidence.

Prediction: Hitchins by unanimous decision

Dec. 21st - Oleksandr Usyk vs. Tyson Fury, WBA/WBC/WBO @ heavyweight

The script for heavyweight boxing dictates that Fury wins this bout and then there's another rematch to settle the trilogy. A rerun of the first fight seems more likely, whereby Fury has his individual moments but Usyk is consistently the better across the evening and is probably the more likely to win by knockout. This feeling of déjà vu is in part reignited by all the stories of Fury's supposedly new physique and how he's in "the best shape of his life". Unless he's managed to reverse the aging process I don't believe it and I don't expect he'll look much less corpulent come fight night. However much he is capable of improving his fitness and conditioning, Usyk was already ahead of him and I see no reason for him to slouch on what should be a career-defining victory. The old dog won't have many, if any, new tricks and the older dog takes training much more seriously.

Prediction: Usyk by unanimous decision

Dec. 24th - Takei Yoshiki vs. Yuttapong Tongdee, WBO @ 118lbs

Takei's third fight of the year and he should make it three out of three wins. Tongdee, three years older and challenging for his first world title, will be fighting outside of Thailand for the first time in his career. Those are very difficult odds.

Prediction: Takei by KO/TO in the second half of the fight.

Dec. 24th - Inoue Naoya vs. Sam Goodman, UNDISPUTED @ 122lbs

It'll take more than just a good man to beat Inoue. It'd take an extremely brave man to call an upset.

Prediction: Inoue by KO/TKO in the middle rounds

Dec. 31st - Fernando Martínez vs Ioka Kazuto, WBA @ 115lbs

The Japanese tradition of New Year's Eve boxing brings us a rematch that should prove entertaining. Martínez vacated the IBF title he had held for over 2 years because the IBF continues to stand by mandatory challengers getting their shot. It's admirable on paper but in practice it only results in unified titles being broken up, though perhaps some more blame should be apportioned to the boxers for not just mopping up their mandatories. It's last chance saloon for the 35-year-old Ioka but I already said I'd stick with him in a rematch, it remains to be seen if he will get a haircut.

Prediction: Ioka by unanimous decision

There sure are a lot of rematches rounding off the year. As tempting as it is to stick with the winner of the first fight just because "he did it before and he can do it again and he will do it again", it's still sensible to look at the factors that influenced the first result and try to calculate if they're surmountable. Both fighters are older, but another half year or more takes a greater toll on older men. Same with questions about stamina or trying to overcome career-long bad habits. I'll say it again though, title rematches would be fewer and more competitive if there were fewer titles and weight divisions. Though the powers that be still support more at any and all costs. "They did it before, they'll do it again."