August 2024 boxing predictions

The July Report

• Poor Shakur Stevenson. He's a great boxer. But most people don't watch boxing for boxing, they watch boxing for fighting. He called out Lomachenko and Davis again and I suspect they'll leave him on read again.
  • Prediction: Stevenson by unanimous decision
  • Result: Stevenson by unanimous decision
• A huge upset says Top Rank, "No one expected it" according to Ring Magazine.
  • Prediction: Conceição by unanimous decision
  • Result: Conceição by split decision
• 120-108 by one of the judges was a disgusting score though Martínez deserved to win, he was landing well but all speed and no power. Ioka was ripping left hooks to the body throughout the fight, for whatever reason he never let it rip upstairs. Ioka might want to invest in a haircut though, the punches he took looked more dramatic than they needed to. I'd stick with him in a rematch unless the judges were unchanged.
  • Prediction: Ioka by unanimous decision
  • Result: Martínez by unanimous decision
• The fight was fairly entertaining even if the result itself wasn't in doubt. Ennis had fairly poor accuracy, landing a few notable lowblows and shots were whizzing past Avanesyan's head like he was a presidential candidate. Avanesyan landed some on the button though they didn't bother Boots so much, Bud Crawford's punches are far more bothersome if that fight does get made.
  • Prediction: Ennis by KO/TKO in the first half of the fight
  • Result: Ennis by RTD after the 5th
• Most of my predictions aren't too far off the money, but the ones where I failed to sufficiently underestimate the loser annoy me the most.
  • Prediction: Nakatani by KO/TKO in the second half of the fight
  • Result: Nakatani by TKO 1
• I may have been off by a couple of rounds but still glad that my analysis of this one held up. What I didn't expect was the unusual knockout finish, I wonder if it was an accidental set-up followed by sharp reactions or an unorthodox anti-southpaw strategy. However, it must be said a better boxer wouldn't be so statuesque with their feet or upper body. Happy for Olascuaga though, he's not done it the easy way and his reign will be keenly watched by patricians of the sport.
  • Prediction: Olascuaga by KO/TKO middle rounds
  • Result: Olascuaga by TKO 3
• I shouldn't have added 'G.' since Yudai-aniki lost his title on their shared double-header back in March to the Filipino challenger Melvin Jerusalem. Now Ginjiro-niisan has had his belt taken by Filipino challenger Pedro Taduran, doubling the number of reigning world champions from the archipelago.
  • Prediction: Shigeoka G. by KO/TKO middle rounds
  • Result: Taduran by TKO 9

7 fights in July, 5 correct winners called. A fair showing since Taduran winning was a bit of an upset and Conceição winning was eyebrow-raising.

August Schedule

Aug. 3rd - Israil Madrimov vs. Terence "Bud" Crawford, WBA @ 154lbs

The first Riyadh Season card to take place outside of Riyadh will now be Wednesday's Santa Monica's Castro-Acosta card. Though it is now the main event of the second Riyadh Season card to take place outside of Riyadh, this fight has received another hallmark cinematic trailer. I've spoken positively about the Saudi promotion game before but they missed a trick here by going with a fictional hardship backstory for Crawford, the real story is much more intriguing.

The match-up itself is pretty good as well. Crawford is the number one p4p fighter in the world. Madrimov is the best challenger around bar Boots Ennis. Do you back the top guy because he's the top guy or do you consider the fact that the top guy is usually half a year older everytime he steps in the ring? Crawford hasn't fought since dominating Spence a year ago. Then again, Spence was the best challenger around and he was badly beaten. It would be an incredible upset if Crawford loses even though he's the challenger moving up a weight division. The circumstances have never been more favorable but I'm not convinced Madrimov has enough to win.

Prediction: Crawford by KO/TKO rounds 10-12

Aug. 3rd - Isaac "Pitbull" Cruz vs. Jose Valenzuela, WBA @ 140lbs

Pitbull is a real crowdpleaser. He won a belt against Rolly Romero in March and has won the hearts and minds of more fans since. Valenzuela has a lot of ambition and is quite tall for his division but isn't one for outboxing. Unfortunately, that upright style of his leaves him standing square and reaching for punches at times, Cruz and his relentless push-forward style should find its mark without too much trouble.

Prediction: Cruz by KO/TKO in the middle rounds

Aug. 9th - Angel Ayala vs. Dave Apolinario, IBF @ 112lbs

Both fighters are undefeated and making their first attempt at a world title. Ayala has the home advantage in Ciudad de México but seemingly lacks a punch. While Apolinario hasn't really been tested yet. It could go either way, but I'll give the nod to Ayala for beating former champion Alvarado. On paper, Apolinario shouldn't have much of a chance but I don't want to discount the possibility that he turns up.

Prediction: Ayala by unanimous decision

Aug. 10th - Luis Alberto Lopez vs. Angelo Leo, IBF @ 126lbs

Lopez wasn't too impressive in his win over Abe in March yet he's the favorite, presumably because he's the incumbent. Leo is one of a handful of boxers who made the mistake of putting ink to paper with Mayweather Promotions and consequently spent over two years inactive. Everyone loves a comeback, I'll be rooting for the underdog but I'm going to have to go with my head on this on.

Prediction: Lopez by unanimous decision

Janibek was supposed to fight on July 13th but went H.A.M. with dehydrating. I understand why moving weigh-ins to the day before the fight made sense once upon a time. But the rules have not kept up with fighter strategies. In a sensible sport, a self-inflicted hospitalisation would immediately lead to inquiries. In boxing, such news is met with a shrug.

Tanaka-Rodriguez was cancelled because Rodriguez did not go H.A.M. in his weightcutting, coming in on the scales more than 6lbs over the super-flyweight/junior-bantamweight limit. If only there were some sort of 'natural weight clause' to prevent these preventable situations from occuring.

For a while I thought Bohachuk-Ortiz was a world title fight because ESPN lied to me. The WBC's portion of the 154lbs title was awarded to Sebastian Fundora for his serendipitous win over Tim Tszyu.

The other fights on the Riyadh Season card are decent. Andy Ruiz, who has fought only twice since losing to Anthony Joshua nearly 5 years ago, is making his return against Jarrell "Big Baby" Miller. I don't expect it to be a good fight, but it might be entertaining.

American heavyweight prospect Jared Anderson has put fans to sleep with recent performances but nevertheless caught the attention of the most important man in boxing today. Some still hold hope that American heavyweight hegemony will be rekindled and Martin Bakole has a good opportunity to put those dreams out to pasture. I don't expect this one to be a good fight, or even particularly entertaining. But it should be interesting because of what it means for the heavyweight picture, I'd like to see the winner of this match face Zhilei Zhang or Joseph Parker by the end of this year before believing the hype.